Analysis of the market for diesel PEM fuel cell auxiliary power units onboard long-haul trucks and of its implications for the large-scale adoption of PEM FCs

Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEM FCs) offer a promising alternative to internal combustion engines in road transport. During the last decade PEM FC research, development and demonstration (RD&D) activities have been steadily increasing worldwide, and targets have been set to begin their commercialisation in road transport by 2015–2020. However, there still is considerable uncertainty on whether these targets will actually be met. The picture is complex and market and technology issues are closely interlinked; investment in RD&D projects is essential but not sufficient; the development of suitable early markets is also necessary and policy is set to play an important role. Auxiliary power units (APUs) are generally regarded as one important early market for FCs in transport. This paper analyses the possible future market for diesel PEM FC APUs onboard long-haul trucks and its implications for the development of PEM FCs in general. The analysis, part of the project HyTRAN (EC Contract no. 502577), is aided by the use of a dynamic simulation model of technology and markets developed by the author. Results suggest that an interesting window of opportunity for diesel PEM FC APUs exists but this is subject to additional research particularly targeted at the rapid development of fuel processors.