A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector

A system dynamic model is presented, which considers the feedback between supply and demand and oil revenue of the existing system in Iran considering different sectors of the economy. Also the export of the oil surplus and the injection of the gas surplus into the oil reservoirs are seen in the model by establishing a balance between supply and demand. In this model the counter-effects and existing system feedbacks between supply and demand and oil revenue can be seen considering different sectors of the economy. As a result, the effects of oil and gas policies in different scenarios for different sectors of Iran’s economy together with the counter-effects of energy consumption and oil revenue are examined. Three scenarios, which show the worst, base and ideal cases, are considered to find future trends of major variables such as seasonal gas consumption in power plants, seasonal injected gas in oil reservoirs, economic growth in the industrial sector, oil consumption in the transportation sector, industrial gas consumption and exported gas. For example, it is shown that the exported gas will reach between 500 and 620 million cubic-meter per day in different scenarios and export revenues can reach up to $500 billion by 2025.

Research Highlights
► A system dynamic model analyzing the feedback between supply, demand and oil revenue is built.
► The export of the oil surplus and the injection of the gas surplus into oil reservoirs are modeled.
► Effects of oil and gas policies in different scenarios are examined for Iran’s economy.
► Counter-effects of energy consumption and oil revenue are examined.
► Exported gas will reach between 500 and 620 million cubic-meter per day in different scenarios.
► Export revenues can reach up to $500 billion by 2025.