The prospects for hard coal as a fuel for the Polish power sector

This paper presents the prospects for the development of the Polish hard coal sector from the perspective of the power sector. The most important issues determining the mid- and long-term future for domestic coal production are: (1) the development of the economy, hence the demand for electricity, (2) regulations (mostly environmental) affecting the power sector, (3) the competitiveness of coal-based technologies, and (4) the costs of domestic coal production. Since the range of issues and relations being considered is very broad, a specific method needs to be employed for the quantitative analysis. The tool applied in this study is the partial equilibrium model POWER-POL, in which both the coal and the power sectors are incorporated. The model focuses on energy–economy–environmental issues without capturing detailed macroeconomic links. The model was run under six scenario assumptions. The results show that the domestic coal sector should maintain its position as a key supplier of primary energy for the Polish power sector. However, the environmental regulations to which the domestic power sector has to conform will decrease the share of coal in the fuel-mix. Since the investment processes in this sector are usually long-term, the effects of changes will be noticeable from 2015 onwards.

Research highlights
► Application of the partial equilibrium model POWER-POL for a quantitative analysis.
► Coal will maintain its dominant position in the Polish heat and electricity production fuel-mix at least up to 2020.
► Attractiveness of domestic hard coal supplies will depend on the environmental regulations (mostly on the EU level) and development in the world coal market.
► The first nuclear power plant will be put into operation in 2020.