Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai, China

In this paper, Shanghai's CO2 emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO2 emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO2 mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO2 emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO2. During 1995–2006, the annual growth rate of CO2 emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO2 emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO2 mitigation potential for Shanghai.