کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
996639 | 936307 | 2009 | 10 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies? How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?](/preview/png/996639.png)
According to the long-term scenarios of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), conventional oil production is expected to grow until at least 2030. EIA has published results from a resource-constrained production model which ostensibly supports such a scenario. The model is here described and analyzed in detail. However, it is shown that the model, although sound in principle, has been misapplied due to a confusion of resource categories. A correction of this methodological error reveals that EIA's scenario requires rather extreme and implausible assumptions regarding future global decline rates. This result puts into question the basis for the conclusion that global “peak oil” would not occur before 2030.
Journal: Energy Policy - Volume 37, Issue 11, November 2009, Pages 4809–4818