Multi-regional input–output model for regional energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China

In this study, China is divided into eight economic regions. A multi-regional input–output model for energy requirements and CO2 emissions in China was established, and employed to perform scenario and sensitivity analysis for each economic region in year 2010 and 2020. Results show that up to year 2020, improvement in energy end-use efficiency for each region could generate intra-regional energy savings. Therefore, continuing efforts should be taken to advance improvements of energy end-use efficiency for each region. At the national level, the effectiveness of inter-regional energy transfers, and efficiency improvements in Central and Northwest regions should be accelerated as much as possible. However, population growth will be an obvious driving force for additional energy requirements and cause greater CO2 emissions across all regions. This demand will increase with the growth of the economy and improvement in household incomes. Population growth in one region will not only significantly affect energy requirements of the region itself, but also drive up energy requirements of the other regions. During this important period in time when China is making efforts to build a well-rounded society, the basic state policy of family planning should be enforced for each region. Model results indicate that there exists relative error between emissions caused by a region and emissions emitted by that region. Different identification of responsibility will have understandable different impacts on most regions in environmental policy reform.