کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
998082 1481444 2014 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Modeling and forecasting of Brazilian reservoir inflows via dynamic linear models
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
مدل سازی و پیش بینی جریان های مخزن برزیل از طریق مدل های خطی پویا
کلمات کلیدی
پیش بینی جریان ورودی مخزن، مدلهای فصلی، به روز رسانی بیزی، پیشگامان آب و هوا
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی

This work focuses on developing a forecasting model for the water inflow at an hydroelectric plant’s reservoir for operations planning. The planning horizon is 5 years in monthly steps. Due to the complex behavior of the monthly inflow time series we use a Bayesian dynamic linear model that incorporates seasonal and autoregressive components. We also use climate variables like monthly precipitation, El Niño and other indices as predictor variables when relevant. The Brazilian power system has 140 hydroelectric plants. Based on geographical considerations, these plants are collated by basin and classified into 15 groups that correspond to the major river basins, in order to reduce the dimension of the problem. The model is then tested for these 15 groups. Each group will have a different forecasting model that can best describe its unique seasonality and characteristics. The results show that the forecasting approach taken in this paper produces substantially better predictions than the current model adopted in Brazil (see Maceira & Damazio, 2006), leading to superior operations planning.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 30, Issue 3, July–September 2014, Pages 464–476
نویسندگان
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