کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
998210 | 1481452 | 2012 | 12 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
This paper forecasts match outcomes in test cricket in play, session by session. Match outcome probabilities at the start of each session are forecast using a sequence of multinomial logistic regression models. These probabilities can assist a team captain or management in considering a certain aggressive or defensive batting strategy for the coming session. We investigate how the outcome probabilities (of a win, draw, or loss) and covariate effects vary session by session. The covariates fall into two categories, pre-match effects (strengths of teams, a ground effect, home field advantage, outcome of the toss) and in-play effects (score or lead, overs-used, overs-remaining, run-rate, and wicket resources used). The results indicate that the lead has a small effect on the match outcome early on but is dominant later; pre-match team strengths, ground effect and home field advantage are important predictors of a win early on; and wicket resources used remains important throughout a match.
Journal: International Journal of Forecasting - Volume 28, Issue 3, July–September 2012, Pages 632–643