Current and future conflicts between eucalypt plantations and high biodiversity areas in the Iberian Peninsula

Eucalyptus globulus plantations are currently widespread inside the Natura 2000 network of the Iberian Peninsula. In a few Natura 2000 sites, E. globulus cover increased after their designation as a protected area. Overall, plantations expanded greatly around Natura 2000 sites. The species distribution model showed that the current potential range of E. globulus plantations extends over 18% of Iberia, mostly along the Atlantic shore, being mainly determined by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. The future projections show a northward contraction of the suitable range, especially under the RCP8.5 (warmer scenario). However, the suitability for E. globulus plantations will improve in most of the receding range, leading to an aggravation of the potential conflicts with those high biodiversity areas. This study helps identify priority areas to prevent further impacts of E. globulus plantations on Iberian biodiversity.