کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10130321 1645332 2018 57 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Tree radial growth is projected to decline in South Asian moist forest trees under climate change
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
پیش بینی می شود که رشد شعاعی درخت در جنگل های مرطوب مرجانی جنوب آسیا تحت تغییرات آب و هوایی کاهش یابد
کلمات کلیدی
تغییر آب و هوا، تجزیه و تحلیل رشد آب و هوا، گرمایش جهانی، طرح ریزی رشد، اعتبار مدل، جنگل گرمسیری، رشد شعاعی درخت، تجزیه و تحلیل حلقه درخت،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه علوم زمین و سیارات فرآیندهای سطح زمین
چکیده انگلیسی
Global climate change has been reported to affect tree growth around the world and such impacts are predicted to be intensified under future climate change particularly in the tropics. It is therefore important to study the climate-growth relationships of tropical trees to understand how they have responded to the past climate variability and to predict how they will respond to future climatic changes. We investigated tree radial growth responses to regional climatic changes in Bangladeshi moist tropical forests. We selected three species based on their distinct growth-ring boundaries and their wide distribution around the tropics. First, we simulated growth responses to climate for the past 66 years (1950-2015) based on the climate-growth relationships. Next, we projected tree-growth until the end of current century (2016-2100) under different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCP). All the three species produced statistically robust ring-width index chronologies covering the current and the past century. Climate-growth analysis revealed that temperature (monthly, annual and seasonal) significantly negatively affected tree radial growth in all three species. Precipitation prior to the current growing season negatively and current year post monsoon precipitation positively influenced radial growth. Tree radial growth was also influenced by Niño 3.4 region Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies mainly through the modulation of local climate. We projected tree radial growth to be declined in all three species by 20% under high concentration scenario (RCP 8.5) followed by 11.3% and 9% under medium (RCP 6.0) and low-medium concentration scenarios (RCP 4.5). If these species show similar growth responses to climatic changes in other native ranges across the tropics, this could have severe consequences for the carbon balance of tropical forests.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Global and Planetary Change - Volume 170, November 2018, Pages 106-119
نویسندگان
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