To push for stardom or not: A rookie’s dilemma in the Tamil movie industry

There is a trend today among successful rookies (SRs) in the Indian Tamil film industry to try to get on a fast track to stardom, running the risk of failure or being replaced with a new entrant. The study examines the rationale for this, and the options available to the actor and the producer. Using a Decision Theory oriented approach we develop and solve a model, and using the data collected in the field we assign values to the parameters in the model and derive the current equilibrium in the market. We also conduct a numerical analysis to see which factors most affect the decision. We find that the strategy may pay off for the SR when the probability of success is neither too high nor too low and when the producer invests in a film that pays attention to all its facets, and not just the lead role.