Transformations of the energy system in the context of the decarbonisation of the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050

This paper presents the main energy-related projections for various scenarios quantified with the PRIMES energy system model, used for the impact assessment study accompanying “Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050” published in March 2011 by the European Commission.The analysis shows that decarbonising the EU economy in the time horizon to 2050 is feasible with currently known technologies provided that considerable restructuring in energy demand and supply sectors goes together with technology improvement. Energy system costs will have to increase, with capital costs increasing significantly. The results confirm that strategies combining all decarbonisation options are more cost-efficient than strategies excluding some options.

► We quantify “decarbonisation” scenarios to the time horizon 2050 for the EU.
► Decarbonisation effort is distributed over sectors, countries and technologies.
► Power generation restructuring enabling more electrification is a key change.
► Energy efficiency progress and renewables have the highest contribution.
► Not deploying or delaying a decarbonisation option implies higher costs.