Reducing carbon emissions in China: Industrial structural upgrade based on system dynamics

• The input–output method and system dynamics analysis are well combined in the paper.
• We study the GDP and total carbon emissions of China from 2008 to 2020.
• Three scenarios are simulated to analysis the calculated results.
• The results provide a foundation for the industrial structure upgrading in China.

China is now in urgent need to accelerate the transformation of the economic development model, promoting industrial structure upgrades in order to reduce carbon emissions. The goals are to relieve energy constraints, guarantee economic security, and reduce environmental pressures. This study calculated the industrial influence coefficients (IIC) and the industrial carbon emission coefficients (ICEC) of all industries in China in 2007. A system dynamics model was built to simulate the GDP growth and total carbon emissions in three scenarios. Scenario analyses have shown that the industrial structure adjustment based on the calculations of IIC and ICEC is better than the one based on the Chinese Industrial Restructuring Catalog. This study provides a solid research foundation for the government to adjust the industrial structure and reduce carbon emissions.