Predictive classification of pediatric bipolar disorder using atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging and support vector machines

Previous studies have reported abnormalities of white-matter diffusivity in pediatric bipolar disorder. However, it has not been established whether these abnormalities are able to distinguish individual subjects with pediatric bipolar disorder from healthy controls with a high specificity and sensitivity. Diffusion-weighted imaging scans were acquired from 16 youths diagnosed with DSM-IV bipolar disorder and 16 demographically matched healthy controls. Regional white matter tissue microstructural measurements such as fractional anisotropy, axial diffusivity and radial diffusivity were computed using an atlas-based approach. These measurements were used to 'train' a support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to predict new or 'unseen' subjects' diagnostic labels. The SVM algorithm predicted individual subjects with specificity=87.5%, sensitivity=68.75%, accuracy=78.12%, positive predictive value=84.62%, negative predictive value=73.68%, area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC)=0.7812 and chi-square p-value=0.0012. A pattern of reduced regional white matter fractional anisotropy was observed in pediatric bipolar disorder patients. These results suggest that atlas-based diffusion weighted imaging measurements can distinguish individual pediatric bipolar disorder patients from healthy controls. Notably, from a clinical perspective these findings will contribute to the pathophysiological understanding of pediatric bipolar disorder.