Data mining methods for classification of Medium-Chain Acyl-CoA dehydrogenase deficiency (MCADD) using non-derivatized tandem MS neonatal screening data

The best performing model used ridge logistic regression and achieved a sensitivity of 100%, a specificity of 99.987% and a positive predictive value of 32% (recalibrated for a real population), obtained in a stratified cross-validation setting. These results were further validated on an independent test set. Using a method that combines ridge logistic regression with variable selection and threshold optimization, a significantly improved performance was achieved compared to the current state-of-the-art for derivatized data, while retaining more interpretability and requiring less variables. The results indicate the potential value of data mining methods as a diagnostic support tool.