Fire weather risk assessment under climate change using a dynamical downscaling approach

The spatial refinement of the projected climate change impacts on the fire weather risk over Portugal was performed through numerical downscaling between MUGCM and MM5. The MM5 outputs, at 10 km resolution, were used to estimate the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) System components. Results show higher FWI values in the beginning of summer for the 2050 scenario. An increase of the maximum values of the Drought Code (DC) in the inner part of Portugal was also detected. An increase in the total area burned is anticipated, with the consequent increase of pollutants emissions.