کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
568334 1452269 2016 16 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
واکنش‌های آنسامبل مدل چندگانه گندم به تغییرپذیری آب و هوای چندسالانه
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی کامپیوتر نرم افزار
چکیده انگلیسی


• Compares interannual climate response of 27 wheat models at four locations.
• Calculates the diminishing return of constructing multi-model ensembles for assessment.
• Identifies similarities and major differences of model responses.
• Differentiates between interannual temperature sensitivity and climate change response.

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981–2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 ≤ 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Modelling & Software - Volume 81, July 2016, Pages 86–101
نویسندگان
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