Phenetics, cladistics, and the search for the Alaskan ancestors of the Paleoindians: a reassessment of relationships among the Clovis, Nenana, and Denali archaeological complexes

Clovis, Nenana, and Denali are the earliest well-documented archaeological complexes in the New World. Clovis has been found at sites throughout the lower 48 states of the USA and in parts of Canada but not in Alaska, whereas Nenana and Denali have been found in Alaska but not elsewhere in North America. In 1991, Goebel and colleagues reported phenetic analyses of tool types from Clovis, Nenana, and Denali. They found that Nenana clustered more closely with Clovis than with Denali, and concluded from this that Nenana was likely ancestral to Clovis. Goebel et al.'s study has been cited frequently since it was published, and their conclusions have been widely accepted. Here we explain why analyses of the type performed by Goebel et al. are problematic and also demonstrate empirically that their results are dependent on the algorithm and distance measure used. We then reanalyze their dataset with a technique from biology called cladistics. Cladistics has replaced phenetics as the method of choice for reconstructing evolutionary relationships in biology, because it is more objective. The results of this analysis differ from those obtained by Goebel and colleagues. The results strongly suggest that Denali and Clovis are in fact more closely related to each other than either is to Nenana.