کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10401867 | 891419 | 2005 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Incorporating reliability evaluation into the uncertainty analysis of electricity market price
دانلود مقاله + سفارش ترجمه
دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی
رایگان برای ایرانیان
کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
مهندسی انرژی و فناوری های برق
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
A novel model and algorithm for analyzing the uncertainties in electricity market is proposed in this paper. In this model, bidding decision is formulated as a probabilistic model that takes into account the decision-maker's willingness to bid, risk preferences, the fluctuation of fuel-price, etc. At the same time, generating unit's uncertain output model is considered by its forced outage rate (FOR). Based on the model, the uncertainty of market price is then analyzed. Taking the analytical results into consideration, not only the reliability of the power system can be conventionally analyzed, but also the possible distribution of market prices can be easily obtained. The probability distribution of market prices can be further used to calculate the expected output and the sales income of generating unit in the market. Based on these results, it is also possible to evaluate the risk involved by generating units. A simple system with four generating units is used to illustrate the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm and the modeling technique are expected to helpful to the market participants in making their economic decisions.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electric Power Systems Research - Volume 73, Issue 2, February 2005, Pages 205-215
Journal: Electric Power Systems Research - Volume 73, Issue 2, February 2005, Pages 205-215
نویسندگان
Chongqing Kang, Lichao Bai, Qing Xia, Jianjian Jiang, Jing Zhao,