Improbable outcomes: Infrequent or extraordinary?

► How probable is an improbable outcome? Most studies to date suggest a 10-30% chance. ► But people asked to select an improbable event do not just pick an infrequent one. ► They select extreme outcome values, typically above the top value of the distribution. ► Improbable (unlikely) events are those that have (so far) never been observed. ► This supports a propensity view rather than a frequency view of probabilities.