Vulnerable populations affected by mining: Predicting and preventing outbreaks of physical violence

• Identify potential for mining related violence to emerge as a response to dramatic rises in commodity prices.
• Understand the literature on mining related violence and conflict prevention.
• Use existing and developing tools to direct food, water, medical services and shelter to vulnerable populations taking advantage of the opportunity to capitalise on an opportunity for income.

Mining occurs in ever more remote areas of the world inhabited by some of the world’s most vulnerable populations. Loosely framing these populations as living in ‘developing country’ contexts does not adequately address the risk of physical violence they face as a result of mining activity. This article explores the risk of violence that may be exacerbated by rises in commodity prices. Whether short lived or long-term, dramatic increases in mineral prices appear to drive behaviour leading to physical violence for vulnerable populations. The article posits that there may be a relationship between the actual or perceived value of mineral resources and the level of violence that occurs in mining-related conflicts. Consequently, it is theoretically possible to proactively anticipate potential outbreaks of violence in vulnerable populations. Underlying is a mapping exercise of mining related conflict to see where mining related conflict is happening; to identify precipitant causes of mining related conflict; and, to discover potential correlations in the degree of violence and the value of the mineral(s) implicated. Implications are drawn for how preventative measures might be put into place in order that human suffering is not increased when financial markets drive up commodity prices.