Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis

We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994-1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logit model distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different specifications are presented, one does not account for unobserved heterogeneity while the other does. Unobserved heterogeneity is assumed to follow a discrete distribution. The competing risks model is estimated jointly for all EU Member States. The duration dependence parameters suggest that in general for EU as a whole, very short contracts provide higher chances of labour market exclusion especially for men. We discuss potential implications of our findings.