You'll never walk alone: Childhood influences and male career path clusters

This paper examines career paths for a cohort of British 29 year old males born in 1970. A typology of careers is identified using sequence methods and cluster analysis. Among the clear 'types' are several paths dominated by unemployment and other forms of non-employment. These types are strongly correlated with individual characteristics and parental background factors observed at birth, age 10 and age 16. By estimating a multinomial logit model of career types we show how policy makers might identify early on those young men likely to experience long-term unemployment or inactivity as adults, potentially enabling better targeted preventative policy intervention.