Box modeling of the Eastern Mediterranean sea

► A 3-box model of the Eastern Mediterranean sea is developed. ► The 3 boxes represent the Adriatic sea, Aegean sea, and the Ionian seas. ► The boxes exchange heat and salinity and described by differential equations. ► The model may have 1, 2, or 4 stable flux states of thermohaline circulation. ► We associate the Eastern Mediterranean Transient with switching between the states.