A probabilistic mechanical model for prediction of aggregates' size distribution effect on concrete compressive strength

► Concrete microstructure is modeled by a Voronoï tessellation. ► Aggregates' diameter and orientation are defined as statistical variables. ► An inter-aggregate compressive-shear failure criterion is proposed.► An analytical model predicting concrete compressive strength is obtained. ► Decreasing coarse aggregates' percentage and maximum size increases concrete strength.