کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10492975 940288 2015 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ساده در مقابل پیش بینی پیچیده: شواهد
کلمات کلیدی
تجزیه و تحلیل، اطلاعات بزرگ، تصمیم سازی، تجزیه، اقتصاد سنجی، تی شرت اکام
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی
This article introduces this JBR Special Issue on simple versus complex methods in forecasting. Simplicity in forecasting requires that (1) method, (2) representation of cumulative knowledge, (3) relationships in models, and (4) relationships among models, forecasts, and decisions are all sufficiently uncomplicated as to be easily understood by decision-makers. Our review of studies comparing simple and complex methods - including those in this special issue - found 97 comparisons in 32 papers. None of the papers provide a balance of evidence that complexity improves forecast accuracy. Complexity increases forecast error by 27 percent on average in the 25 papers with quantitative comparisons. The finding is consistent with prior research to identify valid forecasting methods: all 22 previously identified evidence-based forecasting procedures are simple. Nevertheless, complexity remains popular among researchers, forecasters, and clients. Some evidence suggests that the popularity of complexity may be due to incentives: (1) researchers are rewarded for publishing in highly ranked journals, which favor complexity; (2) forecasters can use complex methods to provide forecasts that support decision-makers' plans; and (3) forecasters' clients may be reassured by incomprehensibility. Clients who prefer accuracy should accept forecasts only from simple evidence-based procedures. They can rate the simplicity of forecasters' procedures using the questionnaire at simple-forecasting.com.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Business Research - Volume 68, Issue 8, August 2015, Pages 1678-1685
نویسندگان
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