کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
10492989 940288 2015 13 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
The bias bias
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
تعصب
کلمات کلیدی
اکتشافی ساده، عدم قطعیت، بیاسا معضل واریانس، تی شرت اکام پیش بینی خارج از نمونه، تعصب سوءاستفاده
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی مدیریت، کسب و کار و حسابداری کسب و کار و مدیریت بین المللی
چکیده انگلیسی
In marketing and finance, surprisingly simple models sometimes predict more accurately than more complex, sophisticated models. Here, we address the question of when and why simple models succeed - or fail - by framing the forecasting problem in terms of the bias-variance dilemma. Controllable error in forecasting consists of two components, the “bias” and the “variance”. We argue that the benefits of simplicity are often overlooked because of a pervasive “bias bias”: the importance of the bias component of prediction error is inflated, and the variance component of prediction error, which reflects an oversensitivity of a model to different samples from the same population, is neglected. Using the study of cognitive heuristics, we discuss how to reduce variance by ignoring weights, attributes, and dependencies between attributes, and thus make better decisions. Bias and variance, we argue, offer a more insightful perspective on the benefits of simplicity than Occam''s razor.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Business Research - Volume 68, Issue 8, August 2015, Pages 1772-1784
نویسندگان
, ,