Water Futures: the evolution of water scenarios

Until recently water resources management was done by extrapolating trends of individual indicators. Forty years ago studies showed social and economic factors interact, affecting global resources. Shell used scenarios to better understand the future of oil resources. Shiklomanov in 1998 completed a global study of future water resources use and availability. On the basis of his work and a scenario development process similar to Shell's, in 2000 the World Water Council published water resource management scenarios. In 2006 the UN World Water Development Report showed these scenarios were optimistic about the adoption of policies to improve water resources management. Decision-makers other than water managers were responsible for making and implementing such policies. Accelerating change and discontinuity in driving forces increase the uncertainty facing decision-makers. The Water Futures and Solutions Initiative now underway will advance this rapidly moving field using applied integrated systems analysis.