How accurately may we project tropical forest-cover change? A validation of a forward-looking baseline for REDD

► We spatially project forest change for Panama, and validate projection accuracy. ► The projection misses more forest change than it captures. ► For 2000-2008, the projection is less accurate than the presumption of no change. ► Forest regeneration is especially elusive to accurate projection. ► We recommend against national projections to define REDD reference emission levels.