کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10508478 | 948493 | 2015 | 18 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Voronoi residuals and other residual analyses applied to CSEP earthquake forecasts
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موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
علوم زمین و سیارات
علوم زمین و سیاره ای (عمومی)
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چکیده انگلیسی
Voronoi residuals, deviances, super-thinning, and some other residual analysis methods are applied to a selection of earthquake forecast models in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). Unlike simple numerical summaries such as the N-test, L-test, or R-test, graphical residual methods are proposed which can be useful for comparing multiple models and for highlighting when and where a given model does not agree closely with the observed seismicity. For gridded forecasts, deviances seem ideally suited for model comparison, and Voronoi residuals seem preferable to simple grid-based residuals for assessing one model individually. For models outputting an estimated conditional rate at any particular space-time location, Voronoi residuals and super-thinning can be especially useful at identifying departures from the data.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Spatial Statistics - Volume 14, Part B, November 2015, Pages 133-150
Journal: Spatial Statistics - Volume 14, Part B, November 2015, Pages 133-150
نویسندگان
Joshua Seth Gordon, Robert Alan Clements, Frederic Paik Schoenberg, Danijel Schorlemmer,