The demographic dimension of climate change vulnerability: exploring the relation between population growth and urban sprawl in Dar es Salaam

• Environmental change and household vulnerability are linked in a vicious circle.
• Urban sprawl combines with climate change in determining household vulnerability.
• Using remote sensing and GIS allows for rapid assessment of urban sprawl.
• A correlation exists between population growth and urban sprawl in Dar es Salaam.
• Inter-census population may be estimated using land cover and household density.

According to vulnerability literature, the expansion of built-up areas is among the non-climate factors that will combine with climate change in threatening natural ecosystems and reducing water availability. This has even worse effects on rural–urban livelihood vulnerability in sub-Saharan African cities when the vicious circle linking environmental degradation to urban sprawl through population growth and ineffective land use planning is considered. This study delves into the relationship between urban sprawl and demographic growth in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. On the basis of land cover classification, urban sprawl over a decade is assessed and its trend compared with population census data. A methodology for population estimation is proposed that combines land cover and household density as derived through primary surveys.