Avoiding, transforming, transitioning: pathways to sustainable low carbon passenger transport in developing countries

This review examines conditions affecting road passenger transport in developing countries that can be instrumental to building a pathway for reducing carbon emissions while concurrently meeting sustainable development goals. By contrasting present and future status of these conditions a vision emerges where non-OECD passenger travel increases of up to 200% can be accommodated via strong investments in transit and non-motorized modes and a recasting of informal transport services into self-organized systems, with lower levels of car ownership and avoidance of carbon emissions. Reductions in motorized travel are also necessary from OECD countries; the focus there is given to what level of pricing and regulatory interventions could change behavior. The articulation of detailed visions can help clarify and prioritize areas where policy efforts can have great impact. Strong actions are necessary from both regions.

► Developing countries will surpass OECDs in aggregated kilometers of travel, energy use and CO2 by 2050.
► Their per capita travel and transport energy consumption will remain significantly lower than in OECD.
► A vision for avoiding, transforming, and transitioning is elaborated.
► Avoiding climate impacts will require large and stable investments.
► Transforming public, non-motorized, and informal transport into resources for sustainability.