Do conditional cash transfer programs shift votes? Evidence from the Honduran PRAF

• This study analyses the electoral effects of a conditional cash transfer program.
• Using the Honduran PRAF as a case, I find major electoral rewards for mayors.
• These results hold true even though mayors were randomly assigned to the treatment.
• The results also shed light on whether Honduran party politics are still “frozen.”

How do national social programs influence local voting? This study utilizes the experimental set up of a conditional cash transfer program to show that small, targeted cash transfers can have large electoral effects. The Honduran PRAF program allocated an average of $18 per capita per year to poor households within municipalities that were randomly assigned to receive the program. Although the program was administered at the national level, the program increased an incumbent mayor's re-election probabilities by 39%, without significantly influencing voting behavior in presidential elections. Moreover, the evidence suggests that transferring cash to poor households were more effective at increasing political support than interventions providing public goods for poor villages.