کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1052142 946374 2009 8 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم انسانی و اجتماعی علوم اجتماعی جغرافیا، برنامه ریزی و توسعه
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Growth, centrism and semi-presidentialism: Forecasting the Portuguese general elections
چکیده انگلیسی

Electoral behaviour in recently established democracies has been more frequently treated from the point of view of its unpredictability, volatility and personalistic elements than that of its “fundamentals”. In this paper, we wish to contribute to redress this imbalance by advancing a forecasting model for general elections in a young democracy, Portugal. Building on the very familiar notion that the vote for the incumbent can be predicted on the basis of “economics” and “politics”, we capture “economics” through a non-linear specification of economic growth. Furthermore, we include two structural features of Portuguese politics, which have entailed a systematic electoral punishment for the centre–left Socialist Party as the incumbent and for all incumbents involved in political conflicts with the elected president in Portugal's semi-presidentialism.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Electoral Studies - Volume 28, Issue 2, June 2009, Pages 314–321
نویسندگان
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