Valence and electoral outcomes in Western Europe, 1976–1998

Do events such as scandals, intra-party squabbling, and acts of perceived incompetence affect political parties' valence images, and thus, their electoral fortunes? If so, how great is their effect? Building upon a growing body of literature that explores the concept of valence, we develop a valid measure of valence based upon content analysis of Keesing's Record of World Events that scores parties along three valence dimensions – competence, integrity, and unity/division. The results of regression analyses designed to test this relationship for parties in nine Western European democracies are reported, and suggest that the answer to the first question posed above is yes. Specifically, evidence is found that events such as political scandals and party divisions cause parties to lose vote share, and that these effects are both statistically and substantively significant. These findings have important implications for understanding the dynamics of electoral competition, for parties' election strategies, and for political representation.