کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
10525121 | 957902 | 2011 | 11 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
ریاضیات
ریاضیات کاربردی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
![عکس صفحه اول مقاله: Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations Gaussian process emulation for second-order Monte Carlo simulations](/preview/png/10525121.png)
چکیده انگلیسی
We consider the use of emulator technology as an alternative method to second-order Monte Carlo (2DMC) in the uncertainty analysis for a percentile from the output of a stochastic model. 2DMC is a technique that uses repeated sampling in order to make inferences on the uncertainty and variability in a model output. The conventional 2DMC approach can often be highly computational, making methods for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis unfeasible. We explore the adequacy and efficiency of the emulation approach, and we find that emulation provides a viable alternative in this situation. We demonstrate these methods using two different examples of different input dimensions, including an application that considers contamination in pre-pasteurised milk.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference - Volume 141, Issue 5, May 2011, Pages 1838-1848
Journal: Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference - Volume 141, Issue 5, May 2011, Pages 1838-1848
نویسندگان
J.S. Johnson, J.P. Gosling, M.C. Kennedy,