Terror and elections: Lessons from Spain

The present paper explores the ways a terrorist event can influence electoral outcomes by examining the Madrid bombing terrorist attack immediately before Spain's 2004 national elections. Uncharacteristically, rather than “rally” public support towards the incumbent leadership this terrorist incident contributed to the electoral upset. Based on individual level survey data, the analyses suggest the terrorist attack mobilized citizens who are traditionally less likely to participate in politics as well as center and leftist voters, and encouraged some of these voters to switch to the opposition. Quite critically, the incumbent government's unpopular foreign policies and handling of the attacks had substantial and independent effects on their party's defeat. Overall, this study highlights the key roles of timing of attacks and priming of issues when understanding the effects of terrorism on elections.