Effects of urbanisation on the water balance – A long-term trajectory

The amount of land consumption required for housing and transport severely conflicts with both the necessity and the legal obligation to maintain the ecological potential afforded by open spaces to meet the needs of current and future generations with regards to the protection of resources and climate change. Owing to an increasing intensity of soil use, soil conditions appear to have deteriorated in most city regions around the world, namely their filter and runoff regulating functions are impaired by land surfacing. As such soil functions depend on the soil's biophysical properties and the degree of imperviousness, the impact on the water balance caused by urban growth varies considerably. In response to the demand for sustainably secure urban water resources, it needs to be assessed exactly how land surfacing affects the functions concerned. Analysing and evaluating urban land use change on the long-term water balance should improve our understanding of the impact of urbanisation on the water household. Therefore, this paper analyses the impact of urban land use change and land surfacing on the long-term urban water balance over a 130-year trajectory by using simple model approaches that are based on data available to the public. The test site is the city of Leipzig. In particular, attention is to be paid to estimating changes of evapotranspiration, direct runoff and groundwater recharge.