کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1053253 946539 2007 14 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه مهندسی انرژی انرژی های تجدید پذیر، توسعه پایدار و محیط زیست
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Scenario analysis in environmental impact assessment: Improving explorations of the future
چکیده انگلیسی

Scenarios and scenario analysis have become popular approaches in organizational planning and participatory exercises in pursuit of sustainable development. However, they are little used, at least in any formal way, in environmental impact assessment (EIA). This is puzzling because EIA is a process specifically dedicated to exploring options for more-sustainable (i.e., less environmentally damaging) futures. In this paper, we review the state of the art associated with scenarios and scenario analysis, and describe two areas where scenario analysis could be particularly helpful in EIA: (a) in defining future developments for cumulative effects assessment; and (b) in considering the influence of contextual change – e.g. climate change – on impact forecasts for specific projects. We conclude by encouraging EIA practitioners to learn about the promise of scenario-based analysis and implement scenario-based methods so that EIA can become more effective in fostering sustainable development.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Environmental Impact Assessment Review - Volume 27, Issue 3, April 2007, Pages 206–219
نویسندگان
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