Tracking development paths: Monitoring driving forces and the impact of carbon-free energy sources in Spain

• The development path of Spain is analysed using an extended Kaya identity.
• Effect of carbon free energy sources separated.
• Nuclear energy acted to increase emissions as it declined in share.
• Renewable energy penetration recently began to reduce carbon emissions.
• Future policy must address wider factors of sustainable development.

The evolution of the national development path has gravity in determining the future emissions outcomes of all nations. Deep reductions in emissions require a focus not just on energy and mitigation policy but on factors underlying this development. The Kaya identity has been recommended to track national progress with respect to sustainability and carbon emissions in the development path. This study applies an extended Kaya identity to the energy-related carbon emissions of Spain. Implemented through a divisia index decomposition annually from 1990 to 2011, it highlights the impact of factors such as affluence and energy intensity. A marked departure from previous studies is the separation of the effects of the carbon-free energy sources; both renewables and nuclear as fundamental mitigation measures. The results show that affluence and population have acted to increase emissions and energy intensity was increasing until recent years. Fuel substitution has acted to decrease emissions but while renewable energy has reduced emissions with the increasing importance of biomass, wind and solar, the decline in share of nuclear has acted to increase emissions. Implications for the development path and policy are discussed and lessons are relevant both for industrialised and industrialising nations.