Indirect land use change emissions related to EU biofuel consumption: an analysis based on historical data

Biofuels have recently been promoted in policies as a way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector. However, biofuel production in itself also induces emissions directly as well as indirectly. This paper presents an explicit calculation of indirect land use change (ILUC) emissions from EU biofuel consumption. The approach includes a straightforward methodology for quantifying ILUC, based on assumptions and on data that is readily available. The calculations show that ILUC emissions alone could shift the CO2 balance for biofuels from reductions to more emissions relative to fossil fuels. This calculation is largely based on historical data, which reduces uncertainty compared to forward looking modelling approaches. However, some of the uncertainties remain. Advantage of this approach is that it can easily be reproduced, which may add to the acceptability in the domain of policy making.