Future demographic change and its interactions with migration and climate change

This paper examines global demographic change as a driver of migration within the context of anticipated climate change. It begins by briefly considering some theoretical formulations which relate demographic change and migration. It then considers evolving global demographic trends and discusses some of their potential impacts upon migration. It is shown that there is a close spatial coincidence between demographic and climate change “hotspots” that will influence migration in complex ways. It then turns to the complex interaction between demographic change, environmental change and migration, both in the past and potential developments in the future. It concludes with a discussion of the potential impacts of future trends and their policy implications.

► Widening demographic differentials between countries have been a major driver of increased international migration.
► Outmigration is characteristic of countries in the middle stages of the demographic transition when population growth is at its maximum.
► There is a strong connection between “hotspots” of projected rapid population growth and climate change “hotspots” in low income countries.
► Predicted climate change impacts on health and disease on mortality and morbidity will be influenced by migration.