On long-term changes of electron density in the upper mesosphere

Recent review study done jointly by 19 experts of 17 institutes shows zero trend of temperature in the upper mesosphere. In the light of this latest development, we have examined the long-term changes in electron density, [e], in this region. The study has been concentrated at 80 km. At this altitude, electrons are mainly produced by the interaction of nitric oxide, NO, by solar Ly-α. Any long-term change in this flux will affect trend of [e]. Considering this flux proportional to 10.7 cm solar flux, analysis of available 10.7 cm solar flux data from 1948 to 2003 has been made. A decreasing trend up to about 1970 and then an increasing trend are found. The over-all increasing trend of Ly-α flux during the past five decades is ∼0.17% per year. This increase also gives a ∼0.17% increasing trend per year in [e]. This non-anthropogenic increase is much less compared to the observed increase in [e] which is reported to be >0.7% per year. The observed increase in [e] of this magnitude will then, predominantly, be due to the anthropogenic effect. In zero trend in temperature, significant change in electron loss coefficient, αeff, and [NO] are unlikely to take place to cause a significant change in [e]. The increase in [e] > 0.7% per year then can be explained by considering a decreasing trend in [O2].