کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
1082991 950978 2011 6 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates
موضوعات مرتبط
علوم پزشکی و سلامت پزشکی و دندانپزشکی سیاست های بهداشت و سلامت عمومی
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
Long-term projections of the harm-benefit trade-off in prostate cancer screening are more favorable than previous short-term estimates
چکیده انگلیسی

ObjectiveTo project long-term estimates of the number needed to screen (NNS) and the additional number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent one prostate cancer death with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening in Europe and in the United States.Study Design and SettingA mathematical model of disease-specific deaths in screened and unscreened men given information on overdiagnosis, disease-specific survival in the absence of screening, screening efficacy, and other-cause mortality is presented. A simulation framework is used to incorporate competing causes of death.ResultsAssuming overdiagnosis and screening efficacy consistent with European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) results, we project that, after 25 years, 262 men need to be screened and nine additional men need to be screen detected to prevent one prostate cancer death. Corresponding estimates of the NNS and the additional NNT under a range of overdiagnosis rates that are consistent with U.S. incidence are 186–220 and 2–5.ConclusionsLong-term estimates of the NNS and the additional NNT are an order of magnitude lower than the short-term estimates published with the results of the ERSPC trial and may be consistent with cost-effective PSA screening in the general U.S. population.

ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Journal of Clinical Epidemiology - Volume 64, Issue 12, December 2011, Pages 1412–1417
نویسندگان
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