Modelling logistic growth by a new diffusion process: Application to biological systems

The present paper introduces a new diffusion process for the purpose of modelling logistic-type behaviour patterns. Unlike other processes in the same context, this one verifies that its mean function is a logistic curve. In addition, its transition density can be found explicitly, which allows to analyse inference from the discrete sampling of trajectories. The main features of the process will be analysed and the maximum likelihood estimation of parameters will be carried out through discrete sampling. Regarding the numerical problems found to solve the likelihood equations, several strategies are developed for obtaining initial solutions for the usual numerical procedures. Such strategies are compared by means of a simulation example. Also, another simulation study is carried out in order to compare the estimation in this process to that developed by means of continuous sampling in the logistic diffusion model considered by Giovanis and Skiadas (1999). Finally an example is given for the growth of a microorganism culture. This example illustrates the predictive possibilities of the new process, as well as its ability to study time variables formulated as first-passage-times.