The development speed paradox: can increasing development speed reduce R&D productivity?

In the 1990s the pharmaceutical industry sought to increase R&D productivity by shifting development tasks into parallel to reduce development cycle times and increase development speed. This paper presents a simple model demonstrating that, when attrition rates are high as in pharmaceutical development, such development speed initiatives can increase the expected time for the first successful molecule to complete development. Increasing the development speed of successful molecules could actually reduce R&D productivity - the development speed paradox.