کد مقاله کد نشریه سال انتشار مقاله انگلیسی نسخه تمام متن
11004074 1467856 2018 11 صفحه PDF دانلود رایگان
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Probabilistic assessment of performance under uncertain information using a generalized maximum entropy principle
ترجمه فارسی عنوان
ارزیابی احتمالی عملکرد در اطلاعات نامشخص با استفاده از اصل حداکثر آنتروپی تعمیم یافته
کلمات کلیدی
حداکثر آنتروپی، تابع چگالی احتمالی نامشخص، محدودیت های نابرابری در لحظات آماری، محدودیت در احتمال شکست، بر روی متریک عملکرد،
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه سایر رشته های مهندسی مهندسی مکانیک
چکیده انگلیسی
When information about a distribution consists of statistical moments only, a self-consistent approach to deriving a subjective probability density function (pdf) is Maximum Entropy. Nonetheless, the available information may have uncertainty, and statistical moments maybe known only to lie in a certain domain. If Maximum Entropy is used to find the distribution with the largest entropy whose statistical moments lie within the domain, the information at only a single point in the domain would be used and other information would be discarded. In this paper, the bounded information on statistical moments is used to construct a family of Maximum Entropy distributions, leading to an uncertain probability function.  This uncertainty description enables the investigation of how the uncertainty in the probabilistic assignment affects the predicted performance of an engineering system with respect to safety, quality and design constraints. It is shown that the pdf which maximizes (or equivalently minimizes) an engineering metric is potentially different from the pdf which maximizes the entropy. The feasibility of the proposed uncertainty model is shown through its application to: (i) fatigue failure analysis of a structural joint; (ii) evaluation of the probability that a response variable of an engineering system exceeds a critical level, and (iii) random vibration.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics - Volume 53, June 2018, Pages 143-153
نویسندگان
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