کد مقاله | کد نشریه | سال انتشار | مقاله انگلیسی | نسخه تمام متن |
---|---|---|---|---|
11015633 | 1782157 | 2018 | 38 صفحه PDF | دانلود رایگان |
عنوان انگلیسی مقاله ISI
Application of the novel fractional grey model FAGMO(1,1,k) to predict China's nuclear energy consumption
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کلمات کلیدی
موضوعات مرتبط
مهندسی و علوم پایه
مهندسی انرژی
انرژی (عمومی)
پیش نمایش صفحه اول مقاله
چکیده انگلیسی
At present, the energy structure of China is shifting towards cleaner and lower amounts of carbon fuel, driven by environmental needs and technological advances. Nuclear energy, which is one of the major low-carbon resources, plays a key role in China's clean energy development. To formulate appropriate energy policies, it is necessary to conduct reliable forecasts. This paper discusses the nuclear energy consumption of China by means of a novel fractional grey model FAGMO(1,1,k). The fractional accumulated generating matrix is introduced to analyse the fractional grey model properties. Thereafter, the modelling procedures of the FAGMO(1,1,k) are presented in detail, along with the transforms of its optimal parameters. A stochastic testing scheme is provided to validate the accuracy and properties of the optimal parameters of the FAGMO(1,1,k). Finally, this model is used to forecast China's nuclear energy consumption and the results demonstrate that the FAGMO(1,1,k) model provides accurate prediction, outperforming other grey models.
ناشر
Database: Elsevier - ScienceDirect (ساینس دایرکت)
Journal: Energy - Volume 165, Part B, 15 December 2018, Pages 223-234
Journal: Energy - Volume 165, Part B, 15 December 2018, Pages 223-234
نویسندگان
Wenqing Wu, Xin Ma, Bo Zeng, Yong Wang, Wei Cai,