The Effects of Socio-Economic Variables in Urban Growth Simulations

Urban sprawl phenomenon is one of the higher threats to the preservation of soil resources. Soil consumption is strongly related to social and economic factors that characterize a territory. Several models have been developed to recreate future scenarios based on past expansion development dynamics. Among cellular automata models for urban growth simulation, SLEUTH is considered as an effective tool to support urban management. However, the model does not explicitly include demographic dynamics and socio-economic ones. This paper compares the results of two different simulations performed on the same study area through the SLEUTH model. While the first simulation is performed using the classical method of calibration of the model, the second one proposes the inclusion of some socio-economic variables within the simulation process. The results show a better match with the actual development trends of settlement by the simulation that takes into account the social and economic aspects of the analysed territory.