Forecasting models for Taiwanese tourism demand after allowance for Mainland China tourists visiting Taiwan

• The tourism industry is an increasingly important national industry for Taiwan.
• This study proposes the SARIMA-GARCH model to analyze and forecast the tourism demand in Taiwan.
• This study also compares the predictive power of the proposed model with other forecasting models.
• The results provide a valuable reference for decision-makers in the tourism industry of Taiwan.

The tourism industry is an increasingly important national industry for Taiwan. Government policymakers and business managers pay close attention to the development of the tourism industry. In a rapidly changing environment that is influenced by numerous socioeconomic factors, the tourism industry must have an accurate method to forecast future tourism demand such that decision makers will be able to meet future challenges more effectively. Based on these concerns, this study proposes the SARIMA–GARCH model to analyze and forecast the tourism demand in Taiwan and compare the predictive power of this model and other forecasting models. The results provide a valuable reference for decision-makers in the tourism industry of Taiwan.